PV’s Upset Specials Week 7

If you’re reading this then you may know that I was 3-1 last week straight up and 4-0 against the spread. If you did a $20 four team parlay with my picks you won about $400, so congrats. I picking on some of the same teams this week, but it’s the tough part of the schedule for teams.

Jets over the Chargers (-1.5) – The Jets are getting their swagger back and they will paste Philip Rivers and the Chargers coming off the bye week. The Chargers defense has enough holes that will allow Mark Sanchez and the Jets’ offense to have a good day. The Jets defense will create at least three turnovers in this one. Jets by 10.

Buccaneers over the Bears (-0.5) – This is basically a pick ’em, but with the Bears as favorites the Bucs will win this one by at least a touchdown. Their defense will confuse Jay Cutler and will stymie the Bears running game. I’d also be surprised if Devon Hester gets a return in this one.

Falcons over the Lions (-3.5) – This should be a well-played football without an angry handshake at the end. This will be a high scoring affair as the Falcons defense has been able to stop very little, but the difference in this one will the running game of the Falcons. The Falcons will control the clock to keep their porous defense off the field as well as Megatron and Matt Stafford. This game will not be decided by more than three points either way. Falcons by a field goal.

Texans over the Titans (-3.5) – The Texans are getting no respect from the odds makers this week, but they have a superior team to the Titans. The Texans will get the offense back on track this week, and Wade Phillip’s defense will of enough to confuse the Titans and create trouble for Chris Johnson’s running game. Texans by a touchdown.

BONUS:

Colts over Saints (-13.5) – The Colts are not going to win, but they are going to cover the spread. The Colts still have a good defense and the Saints will not win by two touchdowns. That’s a straight up spread pick.

PV’s NFL POWER Rankings

1 – Green Bay Packers (2-0)
Packers continue to roll and their defense hasn’t even kicked into full gear, yet. Aaron Rogers and company continues to make teams pay with the big play, and running back Jason Starks is making some noise. They look destined for another solid playoff run.

2 – New England Patriots (2-0)
Tom Brady is putting on a passing clinic and he shows no signs of slowing down. Brady’s near a thousand yards passing after the first two games, which is unheard of. The Patriots defense looks suspect, which could lead to some issues with some teams later in the season.

3 – Detroit Lions (2-0)
This team can score and they can score in a hurry. A Matthew Stafford led offense backed by a defense that should rank in the top 10 by the end of the season this year makes the Lions look like contenders. They face Minnesota this week, which should push them to 3-0. They travel to Dallas for week 4 which should be an intriguing match-up for the Theisman’s Earhole crew.

4 – Houston Texans (2-0)
A great offense backed by a solid defense (Wade Philips back at the roll he should be in, defensive coordinator) could have the Texans working on an undefeated season. They have all the tools in place to make a solid run, especially with the Colts out of the picture.

5 – Atlanta Falcons (1-1)
The Falcons bounced back this week offensively with a solid performance from QB, Matt Ryan, and another 100-yard rushing day for Michael Turner. The Atlanta defense has played inconsistently thus far which leaves them a little suspect.

6 – New Orleans Saints (1-1)
Speaking of suspect defenses, the Saints will not be able to make up for their defensive inconsistencies this season, so eventually expect them to fall out of the top 10. For now I will put them at six because field general, Drew Brees, has delivered the first two weeks of this young season.

7 – New York Jets (2-0)
I like the Jets, but they haven’t been that impressive so far. Mark Sanchez still looks iffy at QB, and their defense has not displayed #1 type play in the first two weeks. They involved Plaxico Burress late in the game in week one, but he did not have any catches in week two, and he should be their big play threat along with Santonio Holmes. It might be a little harder season for the Jets, than I originally expected.

8 – San Diego Chargers (1-1)
I can’t figure these guys out, part of it might be that Norv Turner is not a good head coach, because it seems like they should have won a Superbowl already. The Patriots managed to completely shutdown Antonio Gates and control their running game. The Chargers have been inconsistent on both sides of the ball in the first two weeks of the season.

9 – Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1)
I gave the Steelers the Ravens spot after the Ravens played this week as poorly as the Steelers did in week one. Meanwhile, the Steelers put everything together in week two to look like contenders again. Weapons galore on both sides of the ball make them the favorites to win the AFC North.

10 – Carolina Panthers (0-2)
I know this seem ludicrous, putting an 0-2 team in the top 10, but with a little defense this team can go on a major run. Cam Newton has been let loose and he has delivered two straight games of over 400 yards passing. The only QB who has more impressive numbers is Tom Brady, especially since Brady is avoiding interceptions. Again, a little defense and some production out of D’Angelo Williams and the Panthers could be playoff bound.

NFL Season Predictions

Well, the college football season snuck up on me before I could get my predictions out, so I’m not going to let that happen with NFL kickoff just a few days away. Let’s just say this Bears’ fans, you are really going to hate the Lions this year. On that note let’s start with the NFC North.

NFC North – easily the second most competitive division in football next to the NFC East, but there will only be two contenders this season from the North, the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions. The Lions are young and talented and if they can avoid key player injuries I see a 10-6 season for them, while the Packers return with a solid team to go 12-4 and take the NFC top seed in the playoffs. The Bears made some pretty poor offseason moves and are staring a 7-9 season in the face. The only team worse then the Bears this season in the North is the Vikings even with Adrian Peterson, but not much worse at 6-10. If they beat the Bears twice you might see a record swap.

NFC East – the powerhouse of the NFL with the Eagles, Cowboys, Giants, and Redskins. While everyone is gushing over the Eagles I do not expect Michael Vick to make it through the entire season, which will prevent the Eagles from winning the division, and right there to win it will be the Cowboys with a respectable 11-5 record. The Cowboys already had a very talented team in place and with a new revamped defense they should be in great shape. The Eagles will finish at 10-6 and take the other Wild Card spot with the Detroit Lions. The Giants will offer up more of the same with inconsistent play from their offense and defense. The Redskins just named Rex Grossman their starting quarterback, enough said there. Giants will be 9-7 and the Skins will finish 5-11.

NFC South – This race comes down to two teams and only one will make the playoffs, the New Orleans Saints and the Atlanta Falcons. While the Saints seem like it should be business as usual I think their time has come and gone and the Falcons will emerge as the division winner with a 10-6 record with two wins over the Saints. The Saints will also have a 10-6 record, but one of their losses will come at the hands of the Lions, so they will not make the playoffs. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be 9-7, while the Carolina Panthers will continue their rebuilding process with a 4 -12 record.

NFC West – Why does the West always stink, well since the glory days of the San Francisco 49ers, which isn’t on the horizon anytime soon. The winner of this division will be over .500, but not by much as the St. Louis Rams show the most promise with 9-7 record, and the Arizona Cardinals will be a close second at 8-8. The Seattle Seahawks and 49ers will not be making anything interesting, but I think the 49ers are a little better with a 5-11 finish to the Seahawks 4-12. Yawn.

AFC North – The Steelers and Ravens will he fighting this battle, but the Steelers have a slightly better team, so they will edge out the Ravens with 11-5 record. The Ravens will be right their with a 10-6 record followed by a .500 Cleveland Browns and a horrible Cincinnati Bengals team that might be the worst team in football this season. I’m thinking three wins might be a bit generous, so I’ll go 2-14 with complete turmoil all season.

AFC East – Duh, Patriots, what new? The Pats will win the division easily again despite all the blabbing from Rex Ryan and the New York Jets with a 13–3 record. The Jets will finish with an 11-5 record because of an improved Mark Sanchez this season. The Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins will anchor the division, but the Dolphins will be starting their ascension this season with an 8-8 record. The Bills will suffer another losing season at 6-10.

AFC South – The big question, will Peyton Manning return 100% healthy and ready to perform? It’s such a big question that I’m going to put the Indianapolis Colts at 9-7 this season and give the division win to the Houston Texans with 10-6 record behind a solid year from Arian Foster (despite the MRI tweet) and Matt Schaub. Both the Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars will finish with 7-9 records.

AFC West – Who’s the best team in the AFC? That will come down to the Pats and the San Diego Chargers who will win the West without any problems with a 12-4 record. They should come out the shoot ready to go this year behind gunslinger, Philip Rivers. The rest of the division is crap with the Kansas City Chiefs finishing .500, the Oakland Raiders at 7-9, and the Denver Broncos with a 4-12 record.

NFC Playoff Picture

1 – Green Bay Packers
2 – Dallas Cowboys
3 – Atlanta Falcons
4 – St. Louis Rams
5 – Detroit Lions
6 – Philadelphia Eagles

AFC Playoff Picture

1 – New England Patriots
2 – San Diego Chargers
3 – Pittsburgh Steelers
4 – Houston Texans
5 – New York Jets
6 – Baltimore Ravens