The dreaded time out

How does the great Rob Ryan defense let up two touchdowns with a little over five-minutes to play? I’ll tell you how, by continuing to blitz with an injured secondary leaving little or no help over the top. It also did not help that DeMarcus Ware was offsides on what would have been a 2^nd and 22 instead of a 1^st and 5 that ended up being the game winning drive.

Both quarterbacks left it all on the field and neither deserved to lose, but Romo lost again even though he orchestrated another drive with no time outs and less than a minute to play to have the Cowboys tie the game up and send it into overtime. It looked like they had; much like last week when it looked like they won. Instead Tom Coughlin called a timeout as the game tying field goal sailed through the uprights. Like a bad dream the Giants blocked the second attempt and went on to win 37-34 and put the Cowboys on the playoff bubble, however the Cowboys play the Giants again on New Years Day, Tampa Bay this week and Philly at home on Christmas Eve. Things look good for them.

It’s yet another frustrating loss for the Cowboys who have lost all their games under Jason Garrett by an average of 3.3 points not including the Philly game from this season where the Cowboys lost by 27. I did not include that because that one loss this season was the total amount of points the Cowboys lost their eight other games under Garrett. That Philly loss was an anomaly for the ‘Boys under Garret, who has his team playing they way they need to win games. Romo has never looked better and has kept them in every game this season. If the last two weeks field goals had counted you could argue the Cowboys would be 9-4, instead of 7-6. Oh well, can’t go back and stop Garrett from taking an unnecessary time out or have the offensive line actually block Jason Pierre-Paul, a true defensive game changer for the Giants.

This game was everything you expected it to be, except for the Cowboys blowing a 12-point lead with only five minutes and some change to go.

Romo had the game won if he had just lofted a pass a little higher to Miles Austin that looked to be a touchdown as he was behind the defense, and probably would have sealed the Cowboys victory.

Winning three in a row is very doable with this team, especially since their offense is as healthy as it has been since the start of the season. The key is going to be the play of the defense.

Garrett needs to sit Ryan down and tell him to ease up on the blitzing because Eli Manning figured it out quickly because he’s a smart QB. He dropped further back and was able to buy time for his receivers to break open in the injured Cowboys secondary. If you go back and watch the game the Cowboys could have had eight sacks easily if Manning had stayed in a normal pocket, but he adjusted.

I imagine for a less seasoned quarterback such as Tampa Bay’s Josh Freeman will have trouble against the complex packages that Ryan will throw at him this coming Saturday and will lead to some turnovers.

The game that will be the most interesting will be the Philly game, since his defense looked ridiculously bad earlier this season in a 27-point loss. I imagine he will force Vick to make more decisions with coverage packages versus blitz packages that left the Cowboys venerable over the middle of the field the entire game. The last time the Eagles pasted the Cowboys the Cowboys came back and destroyed them two games in consecutive weeks at the end of the regular season and round one of the playoffs.

The Cowboys still control their own destiny and the Giants still have to deal with the Cowboys again at the end of the season as well as the Redskins and Jets. The Cowboys might be back in first next week as the Redskins beat the Giants once this season already.

One thing for sure, it’s good to see Romo living up to the billing, let’s go Cowboys.

Cutler vs. Romo, is it even worth discussing

On Sunday night at band practice I entered into a discussion of Tony Romo vs. Jay Cutler with Jimmy. He insisted that if he had the choice he would take Cutler over Romo in a heartbeat, this statement flabbergasted me.

The argument in itself is funny, as neither has done squat as it relates to the post season, which is what you really want out of your quarterback. Romo’s misfortunes are highly publicized with the fumbled field goal in 2006, his first season as the Cowboys QB and late game turnovers since, while Cutler had a mysterious knee injury in the 2010 Championship game, and also has a career of throwing interceptions at inopportune times.

When you look at the numbers between Cutler and Romo, well it seems like only an idiot would pick Cutler. Cutler has started 77 games to Romo’s 70 games, as Romo did not play his first full season as the Cowboys starter until 2007 and was injured much of last season (Romo is listed as playing in 98 games, but 28 of those were as the field goal placement holder.)

In seven less games and 111 less passing attempts Romo has passed for 19,158 yards to Cutler’s 17,997, as well as throwing 134 touch down passes to Cutler’s 115. Interceptions – Romo has only thrown 69, while Cutler has thrown 85, and Romo has a 95.8 QB rating with Cutler’s at 84.3. The numbers do not lie, and Romo made a leap over Cutler in the guts category earlier this season thanks to his performance in the 49ers game.

Romo left the game injured to return a quarter later to lead the Cowboys to an overtime victory. It was revealed that Romo returned to the game with four broken ribs and a punctured lung. Romo has continued to play with these injuries throughout the 2011 season. One thing to note, the Cowboys loss is the only loss the 49ers have this season.

Cutler left the biggest game of his career with a “knee-injury” and could not return. I still find it curious that Cutler stood on the sideline with a “knee-injury.” Romo has now trumped Cutler in the “guts” category after his 49ers performance.

Now Jimmy says that Cutler has some “mysterioso X factor” which I can’t argue if he feels that way but he also stated the following about Cutler, “Great arm, tough dude, best QB the Bears have had in my lifetime.”

Great arm I can’t argue, but in regards to “tough dude” please refer to the 2010 playoffs. As far as being the “best QB the Bears had” in Jimmy’s lifetime, well I’d vote Jim McMahon, since he won a Super Bowl. McMahon may have had Payton, but Cutler has Forte (he’s pretty darn good.)

So as far as number goes Romo is superior to Cutler, in regards to guts Romo took a leap past Cutler, but as far as “mysterio x factors” Cutler has that covered.

 

PV’s Upset Specials Week 8

Another 3-1 week last week puts my record for the year at 6-2 straight up and 7-1 against the spread. Against the spread is what we’re going to talk about this week as I only have two straight up upsets this week, but have two against the spread.

Cowboys over the Eagles (-3.5) – Cowboys will win this one without the use of the spread since they’ve found a running game. I know DeMarco Murray ran for 253 yards against a terrible Rams team, but 253 against the Rams translates to 100 yards against a decent team. The Eagles defense has been manhandled this season by larger more physical team like the Cowboys, Dez Bryant should be able to feast all day long. Cowboys by at least a touchdown.

Seahawks over the Bengals (-2.5) – The Seahawks have a way of playing just well enough against team they are evenly matched up with and they are pretty evenly matched with the Seahawks. Seahawks win a close one.

Dolphins over the Giants (-9.5) – This is a spread pick, although this game has upset written all over it I believe the Giants will win by seven. Dolphins definitely cover the 9.5 points.

Jaguars over the Texans (-9.5) – Again, we have a case here where this game will be much closer than the 9.5 points. Jack Del Rio will have his team ready to play and keep the Texans running game in check. When the Texans get one-dimensional they tend to lose games, but they will able to win a close one against the Jags.

PV’s Upset Specials

I thought it would be more interesting to switch gears from NFL power rankings to PV’s Upset Specials, where I, PV, pick a few upsets in the league every week. Everyone has NFL power rankings; you don’t need me to tell you the Packers are the best team in football. This is far more interesting since you can make fun of me when I’m wrong or even make fun of me now. The Bears and Vikings game is not on the list because who cares, both teams need help!

This weeks upset specials:

49ers over the Lions – Jim Harbaugh has the defense that can slow down the Lions passing game and certainly contain the Lions sporadic running game. While I think the Lions are one of the best and exciting teams in football I think the 49ers are a difficult match-up for the Lions this week.  49ers cover the spread (Lions -4.5) and win game outright by 3.

Eagles over the Redskins – At the beginning of the season the Redskins over the Eagles would have been the upset, now the 1-4 Eagles look to the upset the NFC East leading Redskins (-0.5) this week to hang on to hope. This is a slam-dunk for Philly; they should overmatch the Skins and tighten up the NFC East.

Cowboys over the Patriots – The Cowboys two losses are a combined total of seven points; while both losses can be pinned on Tony Romo for throwing some questionable passes in the second half that lead to interceptions, both wins are also because of Tony Romo. The Cowboys defense will be able to contain the Pats enough, and the iffy Patriots defense will let up a lot against a two week prepared Cowboys. Cowboys are getting no respect this week, as they are 7.5-point underdogs. They will definitely cover and win outright.

Buccaneers over the Saints – My final upset special this week is the Bucs over the Saints. The Bucs will bounce back from a thumping from the 49ers and not allow Drew Brees to pull out another last minute victory this week. The Saints defense is terrible and the Bucs will exploit it. Bucs win by 10 this week, and obviously cover the 4.5-point spread.

Good luck everyone!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

D-LIRIOUS!!!

For the better part of the last 60 years it could be said that the “D” in Detroit football stood for  Depression, Desperation, and Doubt.  But yesterday’s miracle comeback win in Dallas has removed all doubt—the 4-0 Detroit Lions are FOR REAL.

There certainly was plenty of doubt permeating the local Detroit sports watering hole where I met several of my fellow long-suffering, yet hopeful Lions fan buddies as well as my blogging nemesis PV who was, of course, unabashedly decked out in all his Cowboy regalia.  The first half had Pete celebrating like it was 1993 as Dallas could to do no wrong, stifling the Lions offense and shredding their defense to head to the locker room with a seemingly insurmountable 20-3 lead.

Trailing by 24 with 10:30 remaining in the 3rd quarter after punting for the 6th time against a potential playoff team in the massive House that Jerry Built, there was little reason to think the game was salvageable. Things were so bleak that one of our crew even decided to bail. BIG MISTAKE, JON.

Detroit’s dormant defense suddenly stepped up with two pick-sixes that finally gave almost everyone in the bar (besides a suddenly silenced PV) something to cheer about. The defensive assault sparked the offense to 17 unanswered points in the 4th quarter culminatied in the biggest road comeback in team history and sent the bar into honolulu blue hysteria.

But the historical significance of yesterday’s victory doesn’t end there.  Check out these incredible factoids:

• According to Elias Sports Bureau, the Lions are only the 4th road team in NFL history to come back to win from a 24-pt deficit.
• The Lions are the first team in NFL history to register 20+-pt comebacks in consecutive weeks.
• Dating back to last season, the Lions have their first 8-game win streak since 1953-54.
• This is the first 4-0 start in Lions history that includes 3 road wins.
• The 4-0 start is their first since 1980 and only the fifth in team history.
• Their current 5-game road wining streak is the longest in team history.

When put in this perspective, despite all the years of disappointment, it’s hard not to get excited about this team. Any doubt has now turned into delirium in Detroit where sights are set on the very ordinary Chicago Bears (2-2) for the Lions first Monday Night Football appearance in a decade.  Ford Field will be as loud as it’s been since the 2009 NCAA Final Four as the Lions go for their first 5-0 start since 1956.

This weeks power rankings!!!

1 – Green Bay Packers (3-0)
Packers continue to roll and their defense hasn’t even kicked into full gear, yet. Aaron Rogers and company continue to make teams pay with the big play, and running back Ryan Grant had a huge game against he Bears this week.

2 – Detroit Lions (3-0)
The Lions move up a spot as they overcame a 20-0 hole at halftime to the Vikings to win 26-23 in overtime. This was the first time the Lions had won in the Superdome since 1997. The Earhole Bowl II takes place this Sunday at high noon when Smitty’s Lions square off against my Cowboys in Texas. I’m going with ‘Boys because of home field advantage.

3 – Buffalo Bills (3-0) I did not respect the Bills last week and they took 16 points away from me in my confidence pool. I also ignored them in the power rankings, which was stupid on my part. They make a high debut at #3 this week. They seem to be able to hang with anyone, but I’d like to see some better defense. That seems to be a problem with a lot of teams right now, defense.

4 – New England Patriots (2-1)
I’ll tell you why the Patriots are 2-1 instead of 3-0 right now, no running game. Not that they don’t have a running game, but the pass happy Patriots seem non-committed to running the ball consistently. This is part of their offense and it’s sad because they can run the ball they just choose not to. I’m going to sound redundant, but they do have some defensive problems.

5 – New Orleans Saints (2-1)
It took 40 points, but the Saints beat the Texans so they’ll move up a spot this week. Again, the whole game is on the shoulders of the New Orleans offense as they have very little defense. What I did not take into account when I left the Saints out of the playoffs is that defense would be at a premium this season. They might just be able to outscore everyone.

6 – Houston Texans (2-1)
Wade Philips may be back where he should be, a defensive coordinator, but his defense was not very good against the Saints. Still the Texans are good club and should win their division easily. They drop a two spots this week.

7 – Dallas Cowboys (2-1)
The Cowboys make their debut at #7 on the power rankings this week after their second consecutive win lead by a flak jacket wearing Tony Romo throwing to mostly rookie receivers. Romo has elevated his level of play this season and Rob Ryan’s defense is making huge plays in the clutch. This is a winning formula that has a big test this week against the Lions.

8 – San Diego Chargers (2-1)
The Chargers struggled this week against a 0-3, Kansas City Chiefs team. Their offense seemed to be lacking a bit with Antonio Gates out of the line-up and never really seemed in sync. They are notoriously slow starters so I’ll hold them at #8 this week.

9 – Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1)
The Steelers were able to overcome a lackluster performance and survive the Colts, 23-20.  Peyton Manning may be out, but the Colts still have a solid defense and should be able to move the ball with the talented support staff that Manning had at his disposal in years past. That’s why the Steelers hold their spot this week in the Top 10.

10 – Carolina Panthers (1-2)
A lot of the Panthers game was played in a monsoon, but they overcome it and won the game under adversity. This was the type of the game this team needed to see if they could handle not scoring at will. They handled it better as they won for the first time this season. The Panthers should move to 2-2 after they beat the Bears. I would just let Cam Newton take control of the game.

Who left the Top 10?

Atlanta Falcons (1-2)
Not sure what’s going on with this team, but they need to work on some things in order to get the team on track.

New York Jets (2-1)
I said it last week, I don’t think the Jets’ defense is very good this season, and Mark Sanchez does not look like he’s matured at all at the QB position.

ILLINI 4-0, Irish back to even, ‘Boys above .500

ILL - INI!!!

Another wild week for my football teams, but they were all winners again. I can breathe easy for another week as everyone’s at least .500 after the past weekend. Then we have the Bears, who, well, are not very good.

Illinois
Let’s start with Illinois, since they’ve started the season 4-0 for the first time since 1951. Conference play begins, so things may change for the Fightin’ Illini in the near future. I’ll enjoy the 23-20 victory over Western Michigan and look forward to beating the Purple Nerds this weekend. You may also know them as the Northwestern Wildcats.

Notre Dame
So much for my bold prediction of the Irish dominating again this week over Pittsburgh, instead they had to overcome turnovers, again to get their second win of the season. Pitt pretty much took receiver, Michael Floyd, out of the game with double coverage, so Tommy Rees did not have his security blanket. Even without Floyd factoring in the game the Irish won 15-12 in a truly boring game. That win moves the Irish to 2-2 on the year.

Dallas Cowboys
So, the Cowboys came limping in to this week with Tony Romo in a flak jacket to protect his ribs and punctured lung, Felix Jones’ shoulder in a sling because its dislocated, Dez Bryant coming in and out the game with leg issues and Miles Austin out with a hamstring. Romo survived four bad snaps by his center, rookie receivers running bad routes, and a so-so running game. The two biggest plays of the game came from Romo, one when the ball was snapped to him prematurely and went 20-yards behind the line of scrimmage before he picked it up and threw a pass for a two-yard gain under duress. The other was the game winning drive when Washington sensing the wide receivers were completely out-of-whack decided to keep sending all-out blitzes daring Romo to throw complete a pass. He did just that when he rolled out, bought time and hit an open Dez Bryant for a first down putting the Cowboys in field goal range. The Cowboys took an 18-16 lead and then the defense sealed the deal when they stripped Rex Grossman of the ball just over 20-seconds to play. The Cowboys took a knee and that was the game. The Cowboys face another undefeated team, my second favorite team to watch this year, the Detroit Lions. The Cowboys defense will have more of a challenge this weekend facing a potent passing attack that includes the best receiver in football, Calvin Johnson. The Cowboys will have to have less mistakes this weekend to beat the Lions, and if they do they’ll beat Detroit 24-21, if not the Lions may massacre the ‘Boys.

Chicago Bears
Is it just me or is Mike Martz trying to get fired? Can you blame him, the Bears still have not provided him with a receiving core worth squat or a QB that will listen. Why do you think the Broncos were so quick to let Cutler go? Because he has issues listening to coaches. In Martz’ offense you either conform to his way or its no way. That really hasn’t worked for Cutler, and he has so little faith in his offensive line that he often gives up on a play too early. Then there’s the flipside to Cutler when he holds the ball for over six seconds and takes a sack. It’s like he has no internal clock. The Bears were no match for the Packers this weekend as the Pack jumped out to a 14-0 lead and didn’t look back. Martz was suppose to be more committed to the run game this week, but they only rushed the ball nine times for 2-yards. Cutler outperformed Matt Forte with three rushes for 9 nine yards. I will admit the Bears did get screwed on a wonderfully designed trick play on a punt. The Packers punted and Devin Hester faked like the ball was coming to him on the near side of the field. Before the Packers knew what hit them Johnny Knox was running free down the far side of the field for a touchdown. The play was called back for a phantom hold back at the twenty. The Bears defense again let up at least 100-yards rushing and was lit up in the secondary as usual. If I were the Panthers this week I would just let Cam Newton throw 50 times, as they will probably win the game. Bears fall to 1-2, staring 1-3 in the face.

Q-tips® Earhole Bowl II — SUNDAY!

Redemption Weekend

Stepping up and making plays, finally was the theme for the teams I cheer on during the College and NFL season. Notre Dame, Illinois, and the Dallas Cowboys all stepped up to the plate this weekend in dramatic fashion. The Bears not so much, but I have no love for them.

Notre Dame
The Irish needed to dominate Michigan State in order to prove to their critics and to their supporters that they should be taken seriously. As I predicted they did just that by picking each other up like a good team does. The biggest play of the game came after the Irish had fumbled a punt in the fourth quarter, no I’m not kidding if you did not see the game. A few plays later the Irish intercepted the pass and returned into Michigan State territory thus sealing the victory. Notre Dame won 31-13 barely sweating as they completely shut down the Michigan State running game. State desperate to come up with something tried another fake field goal that completely backfired, and tried the handoff, toss-back pass that also accounted for a 12-yard loss. It was great to see Notre Dame beat a ranked opponent. Notre Dame now faces Pitt, in Pittsburgh this weekend.

Illinois
Speaking of beating ranked opponents, Illinois had not beat a ranked opponent in 10 tries, since they upset #1 Ohio State through a brilliantly played game of ball control. This time they beat ASU with just enough offense and dominating defensive play. Big plays happened for the Illinois defense when they needed it the most, and the undefeated Illini now find themselves ranked #24 in the country. Good times down in Champaign for the Illini. The Illini take on Western Michigan this weekend before getting into the Big Ten schedule. This will weekend will mark Illinois’ fourth straight home game this season.

Dallas Cowboys
Sometimes a game can define a player’s career and that game may have been yesterday for Tony Romo. Romo returned to the game after having to ribs broken to lead the Cowboys to an overtime victory in San Francisco, 27-24. The broken ribs were announced this morning, but at the time it was at least a fractured rib. Romo put together two drives to overcome a 10-point 4^th quarter deficit before he hit a streaking Jesse Holley for 77-yards setting up the game winning field goal. Of course, the Cowboys have more issues now going into week three. Felix Jones has a separated shoulder but should be able to play, and Miles Austin tweaked his hamstring and could be out through the bye week. Fortunately that is only two games, but with Dez Bryant already sidelined the Cowboys will be asking a lot from unproven receivers like Holley. Randy Moss anyone? He said no the Patriots not the Cowboys. The Cowboys square off against Rex Grossman and the undefeated Redskins this weekend. Can Grossman really keep this going? Did the Bears make a mistake? It should be an interesting Monday Night Football next week.

Chicago Bears
They are the team I thought they were, and this Sunday exploited that to it’s finest. Mike Martz in true Martz’ fashion rushed the ball only 12 times, yet the Bears leading receiver was their running back, Matt Forte, so much for ball control and keeping New Orleans’ explosive offense off the field. I know the Bears think they have a good defense, but their secondary has more holes than Swiss cheese. Drew Brees exploited it and had a short field to work with a few times due to turnovers. Brees passed for only 270 yards, but again that was because of having a short field to work with. It should also be noted that the great Bears’ defense gave up over 100 rushing for the second consecutive game. Jay Cutler ran for his life or just took hits the entire game as screen passes and dump offs to Forte accounted for 67% of the Bears’ offense. Expect more of the same next week when the Bears play the undefeated Green Bay Packers. Looks like 1-2 for the Bears with games looming against the pass-happy Panthers and undefeated Lions. Cam Newton through for over 400-yards again this week, and the Lions crushed the Chiefs 48-3. Could be 1-4 after the first five for Da Bears.

I’ve seen this before…

It was déjà vu weekend for me in the world of football, and at this it didn’t even phase me because I’m sadly used to it. Let’s start with the Notre Dame/Michigan game.

I’ve been going to one Notre Dame game a year with my Dad for the last 32 years, so I’ve seen the National Championship team play, as well as the team that should have won the National Championship but got screwed in 1992. I was even at the Boston College game in 1992 when Notre Dame lost on a 49-yard field goal as time expired to a kicker who couldn’t kick a field goal for more than 35-yards in warm-ups. The National Championship went to Florida State, even though Florida State had lost to Notre Dame that season. Still makes no sense to me, but can’t got back in time. Needless to say, I have a lot invested in the Irish, so when they lost to Michigan again all I could do was shake my head in disgust and turn my thoughts elsewhere. I wasn’t even mad about because I kind of expected it.

When ND kept turning the ball over I felt even though the score read 24-7 that Michigan would stage a comeback. If can’t limit your mistakes you can’t win games. I was at the ND/Michigan in 2010 when the same thing happened. ND came back and took a late lead only to let Michigan score with very little time left on the clock. It was a great game, but totally deflating. When it happened again this year I wasn’t surprised or disappointed, I looked at the TV and muttered, “what new?”

The only new thing at Notre Dame since Brian Kelly took over is more gut-wrenching losses because the Irish have a good, competitive team, so they always lose by small margins. Falling to 0-2 has dashed BCS hopes, but they can still salvage the season starting with a win over Michigan State this weekend. I hope they rip off their heads and shit down the Spartans’ necks. I’m tired of losing close games let’s win some!

So we roll into the first Sunday of the NFL season, and I’m excited about the Cowboys chances this season. They got off to a great start against the New York Jets, but again turnovers cost them the game. I’m not sure which one was more crucial, Tony Romo’s fumble at the goal line or his interception that put the Jets in field goal range to win it. I’m going to go with the fumble, because if Romo holds onto the ball the Cowboys get at least a field goal, and may not have lost the game. Despite losing 27-24 the defense played well, keeping the Jets running game in check while mixing up looks to confuse Mark Sanchez.

The Cowboys excite me more than Notre Dame at the moment because they had an energy and swagger they had not exhibited in the last few seasons under Wade Philips. Part of it was the offense feeding off the dynamic play of the defense run by Rob Ryan. They held the Jets, a running team, to 45 yards rushing and 315 yards passing. The stifling run defense forced the Jets to pass more. Even the mighty Bears defense allowed 110 rushing yards on Sunday, but they won their game.

Tony Romo cruised along playing flawlessly until the 4^th quarter, but seeing Romo run an offense that called all the right plays against the last years best defense in the NFL was fun to watch. Romo, forced nothing until the pass in the 4^th quarter, which was totally unnecessary. He seems to have returned to form, which is a good sign for the Cowboys because they have a defense that is a game changer.

The fact that the Cowboys’ defense at one point had back-ups entirely playing in the secondary, and still kept a good Jets’ receiving corp. in check speaks volumes about Ryan’s defense.

I’ll stick with my prediction that the Cowboys will win the division and go 11-5, and let’s just say I’m happy I never finished up my college predictions because it would not be good right now.

In regards to the rest of the NFL, I’m 9 out of 14 against the spread this week in one confidence pool, but only 8 out of 14 straight up (Cowboys cost me.) I went with the Pats and Raiders this evening. Not a bad first week, especially if both teams win tonight.