PV’s Upset Specials Week 8

Another 3-1 week last week puts my record for the year at 6-2 straight up and 7-1 against the spread. Against the spread is what we’re going to talk about this week as I only have two straight up upsets this week, but have two against the spread.

Cowboys over the Eagles (-3.5) – Cowboys will win this one without the use of the spread since they’ve found a running game. I know DeMarco Murray ran for 253 yards against a terrible Rams team, but 253 against the Rams translates to 100 yards against a decent team. The Eagles defense has been manhandled this season by larger more physical team like the Cowboys, Dez Bryant should be able to feast all day long. Cowboys by at least a touchdown.

Seahawks over the Bengals (-2.5) – The Seahawks have a way of playing just well enough against team they are evenly matched up with and they are pretty evenly matched with the Seahawks. Seahawks win a close one.

Dolphins over the Giants (-9.5) – This is a spread pick, although this game has upset written all over it I believe the Giants will win by seven. Dolphins definitely cover the 9.5 points.

Jaguars over the Texans (-9.5) – Again, we have a case here where this game will be much closer than the 9.5 points. Jack Del Rio will have his team ready to play and keep the Texans running game in check. When the Texans get one-dimensional they tend to lose games, but they will able to win a close one against the Jags.

PV’s Upset Specials Week 7

If you’re reading this then you may know that I was 3-1 last week straight up and 4-0 against the spread. If you did a $20 four team parlay with my picks you won about $400, so congrats. I picking on some of the same teams this week, but it’s the tough part of the schedule for teams.

Jets over the Chargers (-1.5) – The Jets are getting their swagger back and they will paste Philip Rivers and the Chargers coming off the bye week. The Chargers defense has enough holes that will allow Mark Sanchez and the Jets’ offense to have a good day. The Jets defense will create at least three turnovers in this one. Jets by 10.

Buccaneers over the Bears (-0.5) – This is basically a pick ’em, but with the Bears as favorites the Bucs will win this one by at least a touchdown. Their defense will confuse Jay Cutler and will stymie the Bears running game. I’d also be surprised if Devon Hester gets a return in this one.

Falcons over the Lions (-3.5) – This should be a well-played football without an angry handshake at the end. This will be a high scoring affair as the Falcons defense has been able to stop very little, but the difference in this one will the running game of the Falcons. The Falcons will control the clock to keep their porous defense off the field as well as Megatron and Matt Stafford. This game will not be decided by more than three points either way. Falcons by a field goal.

Texans over the Titans (-3.5) – The Texans are getting no respect from the odds makers this week, but they have a superior team to the Titans. The Texans will get the offense back on track this week, and Wade Phillip’s defense will of enough to confuse the Titans and create trouble for Chris Johnson’s running game. Texans by a touchdown.

BONUS:

Colts over Saints (-13.5) – The Colts are not going to win, but they are going to cover the spread. The Colts still have a good defense and the Saints will not win by two touchdowns. That’s a straight up spread pick.

PV’s Upset Specials

I thought it would be more interesting to switch gears from NFL power rankings to PV’s Upset Specials, where I, PV, pick a few upsets in the league every week. Everyone has NFL power rankings; you don’t need me to tell you the Packers are the best team in football. This is far more interesting since you can make fun of me when I’m wrong or even make fun of me now. The Bears and Vikings game is not on the list because who cares, both teams need help!

This weeks upset specials:

49ers over the Lions – Jim Harbaugh has the defense that can slow down the Lions passing game and certainly contain the Lions sporadic running game. While I think the Lions are one of the best and exciting teams in football I think the 49ers are a difficult match-up for the Lions this week.  49ers cover the spread (Lions -4.5) and win game outright by 3.

Eagles over the Redskins – At the beginning of the season the Redskins over the Eagles would have been the upset, now the 1-4 Eagles look to the upset the NFC East leading Redskins (-0.5) this week to hang on to hope. This is a slam-dunk for Philly; they should overmatch the Skins and tighten up the NFC East.

Cowboys over the Patriots – The Cowboys two losses are a combined total of seven points; while both losses can be pinned on Tony Romo for throwing some questionable passes in the second half that lead to interceptions, both wins are also because of Tony Romo. The Cowboys defense will be able to contain the Pats enough, and the iffy Patriots defense will let up a lot against a two week prepared Cowboys. Cowboys are getting no respect this week, as they are 7.5-point underdogs. They will definitely cover and win outright.

Buccaneers over the Saints – My final upset special this week is the Bucs over the Saints. The Bucs will bounce back from a thumping from the 49ers and not allow Drew Brees to pull out another last minute victory this week. The Saints defense is terrible and the Bucs will exploit it. Bucs win by 10 this week, and obviously cover the 4.5-point spread.

Good luck everyone!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Earhole Bowl II immortalized on SI cover

D-LIRIOUS!!!

For the better part of the last 60 years it could be said that the “D” in Detroit football stood for  Depression, Desperation, and Doubt.  But yesterday’s miracle comeback win in Dallas has removed all doubt—the 4-0 Detroit Lions are FOR REAL.

There certainly was plenty of doubt permeating the local Detroit sports watering hole where I met several of my fellow long-suffering, yet hopeful Lions fan buddies as well as my blogging nemesis PV who was, of course, unabashedly decked out in all his Cowboy regalia.  The first half had Pete celebrating like it was 1993 as Dallas could to do no wrong, stifling the Lions offense and shredding their defense to head to the locker room with a seemingly insurmountable 20-3 lead.

Trailing by 24 with 10:30 remaining in the 3rd quarter after punting for the 6th time against a potential playoff team in the massive House that Jerry Built, there was little reason to think the game was salvageable. Things were so bleak that one of our crew even decided to bail. BIG MISTAKE, JON.

Detroit’s dormant defense suddenly stepped up with two pick-sixes that finally gave almost everyone in the bar (besides a suddenly silenced PV) something to cheer about. The defensive assault sparked the offense to 17 unanswered points in the 4th quarter culminatied in the biggest road comeback in team history and sent the bar into honolulu blue hysteria.

But the historical significance of yesterday’s victory doesn’t end there.  Check out these incredible factoids:

• According to Elias Sports Bureau, the Lions are only the 4th road team in NFL history to come back to win from a 24-pt deficit.
• The Lions are the first team in NFL history to register 20+-pt comebacks in consecutive weeks.
• Dating back to last season, the Lions have their first 8-game win streak since 1953-54.
• This is the first 4-0 start in Lions history that includes 3 road wins.
• The 4-0 start is their first since 1980 and only the fifth in team history.
• Their current 5-game road wining streak is the longest in team history.

When put in this perspective, despite all the years of disappointment, it’s hard not to get excited about this team. Any doubt has now turned into delirium in Detroit where sights are set on the very ordinary Chicago Bears (2-2) for the Lions first Monday Night Football appearance in a decade.  Ford Field will be as loud as it’s been since the 2009 NCAA Final Four as the Lions go for their first 5-0 start since 1956.

This weeks power rankings!!!

1 – Green Bay Packers (3-0)
Packers continue to roll and their defense hasn’t even kicked into full gear, yet. Aaron Rogers and company continue to make teams pay with the big play, and running back Ryan Grant had a huge game against he Bears this week.

2 – Detroit Lions (3-0)
The Lions move up a spot as they overcame a 20-0 hole at halftime to the Vikings to win 26-23 in overtime. This was the first time the Lions had won in the Superdome since 1997. The Earhole Bowl II takes place this Sunday at high noon when Smitty’s Lions square off against my Cowboys in Texas. I’m going with ‘Boys because of home field advantage.

3 – Buffalo Bills (3-0) I did not respect the Bills last week and they took 16 points away from me in my confidence pool. I also ignored them in the power rankings, which was stupid on my part. They make a high debut at #3 this week. They seem to be able to hang with anyone, but I’d like to see some better defense. That seems to be a problem with a lot of teams right now, defense.

4 – New England Patriots (2-1)
I’ll tell you why the Patriots are 2-1 instead of 3-0 right now, no running game. Not that they don’t have a running game, but the pass happy Patriots seem non-committed to running the ball consistently. This is part of their offense and it’s sad because they can run the ball they just choose not to. I’m going to sound redundant, but they do have some defensive problems.

5 – New Orleans Saints (2-1)
It took 40 points, but the Saints beat the Texans so they’ll move up a spot this week. Again, the whole game is on the shoulders of the New Orleans offense as they have very little defense. What I did not take into account when I left the Saints out of the playoffs is that defense would be at a premium this season. They might just be able to outscore everyone.

6 – Houston Texans (2-1)
Wade Philips may be back where he should be, a defensive coordinator, but his defense was not very good against the Saints. Still the Texans are good club and should win their division easily. They drop a two spots this week.

7 – Dallas Cowboys (2-1)
The Cowboys make their debut at #7 on the power rankings this week after their second consecutive win lead by a flak jacket wearing Tony Romo throwing to mostly rookie receivers. Romo has elevated his level of play this season and Rob Ryan’s defense is making huge plays in the clutch. This is a winning formula that has a big test this week against the Lions.

8 – San Diego Chargers (2-1)
The Chargers struggled this week against a 0-3, Kansas City Chiefs team. Their offense seemed to be lacking a bit with Antonio Gates out of the line-up and never really seemed in sync. They are notoriously slow starters so I’ll hold them at #8 this week.

9 – Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1)
The Steelers were able to overcome a lackluster performance and survive the Colts, 23-20.  Peyton Manning may be out, but the Colts still have a solid defense and should be able to move the ball with the talented support staff that Manning had at his disposal in years past. That’s why the Steelers hold their spot this week in the Top 10.

10 – Carolina Panthers (1-2)
A lot of the Panthers game was played in a monsoon, but they overcome it and won the game under adversity. This was the type of the game this team needed to see if they could handle not scoring at will. They handled it better as they won for the first time this season. The Panthers should move to 2-2 after they beat the Bears. I would just let Cam Newton take control of the game.

Who left the Top 10?

Atlanta Falcons (1-2)
Not sure what’s going on with this team, but they need to work on some things in order to get the team on track.

New York Jets (2-1)
I said it last week, I don’t think the Jets’ defense is very good this season, and Mark Sanchez does not look like he’s matured at all at the QB position.

ILLINI 4-0, Irish back to even, ‘Boys above .500

ILL - INI!!!

Another wild week for my football teams, but they were all winners again. I can breathe easy for another week as everyone’s at least .500 after the past weekend. Then we have the Bears, who, well, are not very good.

Illinois
Let’s start with Illinois, since they’ve started the season 4-0 for the first time since 1951. Conference play begins, so things may change for the Fightin’ Illini in the near future. I’ll enjoy the 23-20 victory over Western Michigan and look forward to beating the Purple Nerds this weekend. You may also know them as the Northwestern Wildcats.

Notre Dame
So much for my bold prediction of the Irish dominating again this week over Pittsburgh, instead they had to overcome turnovers, again to get their second win of the season. Pitt pretty much took receiver, Michael Floyd, out of the game with double coverage, so Tommy Rees did not have his security blanket. Even without Floyd factoring in the game the Irish won 15-12 in a truly boring game. That win moves the Irish to 2-2 on the year.

Dallas Cowboys
So, the Cowboys came limping in to this week with Tony Romo in a flak jacket to protect his ribs and punctured lung, Felix Jones’ shoulder in a sling because its dislocated, Dez Bryant coming in and out the game with leg issues and Miles Austin out with a hamstring. Romo survived four bad snaps by his center, rookie receivers running bad routes, and a so-so running game. The two biggest plays of the game came from Romo, one when the ball was snapped to him prematurely and went 20-yards behind the line of scrimmage before he picked it up and threw a pass for a two-yard gain under duress. The other was the game winning drive when Washington sensing the wide receivers were completely out-of-whack decided to keep sending all-out blitzes daring Romo to throw complete a pass. He did just that when he rolled out, bought time and hit an open Dez Bryant for a first down putting the Cowboys in field goal range. The Cowboys took an 18-16 lead and then the defense sealed the deal when they stripped Rex Grossman of the ball just over 20-seconds to play. The Cowboys took a knee and that was the game. The Cowboys face another undefeated team, my second favorite team to watch this year, the Detroit Lions. The Cowboys defense will have more of a challenge this weekend facing a potent passing attack that includes the best receiver in football, Calvin Johnson. The Cowboys will have to have less mistakes this weekend to beat the Lions, and if they do they’ll beat Detroit 24-21, if not the Lions may massacre the ‘Boys.

Chicago Bears
Is it just me or is Mike Martz trying to get fired? Can you blame him, the Bears still have not provided him with a receiving core worth squat or a QB that will listen. Why do you think the Broncos were so quick to let Cutler go? Because he has issues listening to coaches. In Martz’ offense you either conform to his way or its no way. That really hasn’t worked for Cutler, and he has so little faith in his offensive line that he often gives up on a play too early. Then there’s the flipside to Cutler when he holds the ball for over six seconds and takes a sack. It’s like he has no internal clock. The Bears were no match for the Packers this weekend as the Pack jumped out to a 14-0 lead and didn’t look back. Martz was suppose to be more committed to the run game this week, but they only rushed the ball nine times for 2-yards. Cutler outperformed Matt Forte with three rushes for 9 nine yards. I will admit the Bears did get screwed on a wonderfully designed trick play on a punt. The Packers punted and Devin Hester faked like the ball was coming to him on the near side of the field. Before the Packers knew what hit them Johnny Knox was running free down the far side of the field for a touchdown. The play was called back for a phantom hold back at the twenty. The Bears defense again let up at least 100-yards rushing and was lit up in the secondary as usual. If I were the Panthers this week I would just let Cam Newton throw 50 times, as they will probably win the game. Bears fall to 1-2, staring 1-3 in the face.

Q-tips® Earhole Bowl II — SUNDAY!

PV’s NFL POWER Rankings

1 – Green Bay Packers (2-0)
Packers continue to roll and their defense hasn’t even kicked into full gear, yet. Aaron Rogers and company continues to make teams pay with the big play, and running back Jason Starks is making some noise. They look destined for another solid playoff run.

2 – New England Patriots (2-0)
Tom Brady is putting on a passing clinic and he shows no signs of slowing down. Brady’s near a thousand yards passing after the first two games, which is unheard of. The Patriots defense looks suspect, which could lead to some issues with some teams later in the season.

3 – Detroit Lions (2-0)
This team can score and they can score in a hurry. A Matthew Stafford led offense backed by a defense that should rank in the top 10 by the end of the season this year makes the Lions look like contenders. They face Minnesota this week, which should push them to 3-0. They travel to Dallas for week 4 which should be an intriguing match-up for the Theisman’s Earhole crew.

4 – Houston Texans (2-0)
A great offense backed by a solid defense (Wade Philips back at the roll he should be in, defensive coordinator) could have the Texans working on an undefeated season. They have all the tools in place to make a solid run, especially with the Colts out of the picture.

5 – Atlanta Falcons (1-1)
The Falcons bounced back this week offensively with a solid performance from QB, Matt Ryan, and another 100-yard rushing day for Michael Turner. The Atlanta defense has played inconsistently thus far which leaves them a little suspect.

6 – New Orleans Saints (1-1)
Speaking of suspect defenses, the Saints will not be able to make up for their defensive inconsistencies this season, so eventually expect them to fall out of the top 10. For now I will put them at six because field general, Drew Brees, has delivered the first two weeks of this young season.

7 – New York Jets (2-0)
I like the Jets, but they haven’t been that impressive so far. Mark Sanchez still looks iffy at QB, and their defense has not displayed #1 type play in the first two weeks. They involved Plaxico Burress late in the game in week one, but he did not have any catches in week two, and he should be their big play threat along with Santonio Holmes. It might be a little harder season for the Jets, than I originally expected.

8 – San Diego Chargers (1-1)
I can’t figure these guys out, part of it might be that Norv Turner is not a good head coach, because it seems like they should have won a Superbowl already. The Patriots managed to completely shutdown Antonio Gates and control their running game. The Chargers have been inconsistent on both sides of the ball in the first two weeks of the season.

9 – Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1)
I gave the Steelers the Ravens spot after the Ravens played this week as poorly as the Steelers did in week one. Meanwhile, the Steelers put everything together in week two to look like contenders again. Weapons galore on both sides of the ball make them the favorites to win the AFC North.

10 – Carolina Panthers (0-2)
I know this seem ludicrous, putting an 0-2 team in the top 10, but with a little defense this team can go on a major run. Cam Newton has been let loose and he has delivered two straight games of over 400 yards passing. The only QB who has more impressive numbers is Tom Brady, especially since Brady is avoiding interceptions. Again, a little defense and some production out of D’Angelo Williams and the Panthers could be playoff bound.

TD celebration of the year!

No idea what the guy in the backpack did to the Giants’ Michael Boley, but he looked like he deserved it.